Simulation details

Standard sim report for ms3R

Scenario: SOG_wtd

Model Hypothesis: Ugrid_0.14

Species complex:

Stock areas:

Simulation envelopes

Spawning Biomass

Simulation envelopes of spawning biomass and catch scaled by unfished biomass. Columns are species, and rows are stock areas. Median biomass is shown by the thick black lines, with the grey region showing the central 95% of the distribution of spawning biomass, and thin black lines showing three randomly selected simulation replicates. Catch is shown as grey bars in the historical period, which represent median catch in the projection, with thin vertical line segments showing the central 95% of the catch distribution.

Figure 1: Simulation envelopes of spawning biomass and catch scaled by unfished biomass.
Columns are species, and rows are stock areas. Median biomass is shown by the thick black lines, with the grey region showing the central 95% of the distribution of spawning biomass, and thin black lines showing three randomly selected simulation replicates. Catch is shown as grey bars in the historical period, which represent median catch in the projection, with thin vertical line segments showing the central 95% of the catch distribution.

Simulation envelopes of spawning biomass and catch scaled by unfished biomass. Columns are species, and rows are stock areas. Median biomass is shown by the thick black lines, with the grey region showing the central 95% of the distribution of spawning biomass, and thin black lines showing three randomly selected simulation replicates. Catch is shown as grey bars in the historical period, which represent median catch in the projection, with thin vertical line segments showing the central 95% of the catch distribution.

Figure 2: Simulation envelopes of spawning biomass and catch scaled by unfished biomass.
Columns are species, and rows are stock areas. Median biomass is shown by the thick black lines, with the grey region showing the central 95% of the distribution of spawning biomass, and thin black lines showing three randomly selected simulation replicates. Catch is shown as grey bars in the historical period, which represent median catch in the projection, with thin vertical line segments showing the central 95% of the catch distribution.

Catch and Fishing mortality

Simulation envelopes of catch. Columns are species, and rows are stock areas. Median biomass is shown by the thick black lines, with the grey region showing the central 95% of the distribution of catch, and thin black lines showing three randomly selected simulation replicates.

Figure 3: Simulation envelopes of catch. Columns are species, and rows are stock areas. Median biomass is shown by the thick black lines, with the grey region showing the central 95% of the distribution of catch, and thin black lines showing three randomly selected simulation replicates.

Simulation envelopes of effort in each stock area.

Figure 4: Simulation envelopes of effort in each stock area.

Example replicates

Biomass, catch, recruitment, mortality

Spawning Biomass, total catch, age-1 recruitment, and mortality for age 1 and ages 2+ for all stock areas

Figure 5: Spawning Biomass, total catch, age-1 recruitment, and mortality for age 1 and ages 2+ for all stock areas

Depensatory relationship between natural mortality (y-axis) and age-2+ biomass (x-axis). The solid line shows the deterministic model used in simulations, while the points show the simulated annual values with mortality process error. Phase is shown by colours and point shape as explained in the legend.

Figure 6: Depensatory relationship between natural mortality (y-axis) and age-2+ biomass (x-axis). The solid line shows the deterministic model used in simulations, while the points show the simulated annual values with mortality process error. Phase is shown by colours and point shape as explained in the legend.

Deterministic Beverton-Holt stock recruitment relationship (line) and realised recruitments for the historical period (grey points) and projection period (pink points). Dashed lines show unfished biomass and recruitment and the equilibrium biomass and recruitment at $B_{MSY}$.

Figure 7: Deterministic Beverton-Holt stock recruitment relationship (line) and realised recruitments for the historical period (grey points) and projection period (pink points). Dashed lines show unfished biomass and recruitment and the equilibrium biomass and recruitment at \(B_{MSY}\).

Retrospective biomass

Retrospective assesment model estimates of stock biomass from a randomly selected simulation replicate. The red line is operating mode spawning stock biomass, points are simulated spawn indices, and the grey trace lines are the yearly estimates of spawn biomass from the estimation method. When the MP uses perfect info, there is a single grey trace that may be perfectly overlaid on the OM biomass line.

Figure 8: Retrospective assesment model estimates of stock biomass from a randomly selected simulation replicate. The red line is operating mode spawning stock biomass, points are simulated spawn indices, and the grey trace lines are the yearly estimates of spawn biomass from the estimation method. When the MP uses perfect info, there is a single grey trace that may be perfectly overlaid on the OM biomass line.

Model fits in first year

Simulated assessment model fit to spawn indices in the first year of the projections. The red line is operating mode spawning stock biomass, and when there is a simulated assessment model, the grey trace line shows assessment model estimated biomass, and spawn indices are shown as data points scaled by the AM estimate of catchability.

Figure 9: Simulated assessment model fit to spawn indices in the first year of the projections. The red line is operating mode spawning stock biomass, and when there is a simulated assessment model, the grey trace line shows assessment model estimated biomass, and spawn indices are shown as data points scaled by the AM estimate of catchability.

HCR performance

Time-series of projected simulated and estimated spawning biomass (top), and target and effective harvest rates (bottom).

Figure 10: Time-series of projected simulated and estimated spawning biomass (top), and target and effective harvest rates (bottom).

Performance

Stats table

Table 1: Performance statistics for this simulation.
simLabel scenario mp species stock projObsErrMult nGoodReps medProbPDH_sp pGoodReps pBtGt.3B0 B5pc D5pc pBtGtUSR pBtGt.5B0 pBtGt.6B0 pBtGt.4Bmsy pBtGt.8Bmsy pBtGtBmsy pUtGtUref pCtGt650t C5pc nYrsSOK avgLicSOK avgSOK_t avgPonded_t pondAAV nYrsComm avgCatch_t catchAAV BtMP DtMP BhistT DhistT BnT DnT BhattMP CtMP
SOG_wtd_Ugrid_0.14 SOG_wtd Ugrid_0.14 Herring SOG 1 100 1 0.96 0.763 8.301 0.094 0.321 0.558 0.47 0.89 0.73 0.64 0.609 0.95 0.563 0 0 0 0 0 15 11852.6 29.7 89.567 0.895 70.043 0.791 47.591 0.537 97.994 13.719 
## ## Convergence diagnostics
Convergence diagnostics for the simulated assessment model at each projection time step. The left hand column shows the distribution of maximum gradient components across replicates, and the right hand column shows the proportion of replicates where the AM produced a positive definite Hessian matrix.

Figure 11: Convergence diagnostics for the simulated assessment model at each projection time step. The left hand column shows the distribution of maximum gradient components across replicates, and the right hand column shows the proportion of replicates where the AM produced a positive definite Hessian matrix.

OM conditioning diagnostics